FOREIGN TRADE INDICES
FOURTH QUARTER 2002
(1995=100)
SUMMARY
Percent Change in Merchandise Trade Indices:
4th and 3rd Quarter 2002
| Index | Year-on-Year | Quarter-on-Quarter | 4th Qtr 2002 | 3rd Qtr 2002 | 4th Qtr 2002 | 3rd Qtr 2002 |
| VALUE INDEX | ||||
| Exports | 10.2 | 18.9 | (4.2) | 9.8 |
| Imports | 23.6 | 14.7 | (10.4) | 3.8 |
| QUANTITY INDEX | ||||
| Exports | 3.6 | 38.7 | (23.5) | 32.9 |
| Imports | 11.3 | 8.7 | (8.0) | 0.7 |
| PRICE INDEX | ||||
| Exports | 6.2 | (14.3) | 25.0 | (17.2) |
| Imports | 11.6 | 5.4 | (2.0) | 3.2 |
Fourth quarter price indices for both exports and imports showed positive year-on-year growth over the 2001 levels. Overall price index of merchandise exports recovered during the fourth quarter after posting a negative increase during the third quarter.
Value index for both exports and imports continued to register double-digit positive annual growth. However, the increments paled in comparison to the high value index levels posted during the third quarter yielding negative quarter-on-quarter growth for the fourth quarter of 2002.
Similarly, despite the quarter-on-quarter decline in quantity index for both exports and imports during the fourth quarter, positive annual growth were noted for both types of transactions.
I. VALUES
A. Exports
- Year-on-Year (4th Quarter 2002 over 4th Quarter 2001
Merchandise exports recorded an aggregate value index of 207.5, representing a 10.2 percent increase from 188.4 index points during the same quarter of 2001. Composite index for Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related Materials posted the biggest increase as this grew by 95.7 percent to 162.2 from 82.9.
Value index for Electronics Components recorded at 326.1 went up by 14.0 percent from 285.9.
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B. Imports
Year-on-Year (4th Quarter 2002 over 4th Quarter 2001)
Value index for merchandise imports on the other hand, recorded a heftier 23.6 percent year-on-year increase for the fourth quarter. Leading the surge was the Machinery and Transport Equipment group which posted a 31.3 percent increase or from 122.9 in 2001 to 161.5 in 2002.
Value index for Electronics Components grew by 50.6 percent to 279.8 from 185.7.
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II. VOLUMES OR QUANTITIES
A. Exports
Year-on-Year (4th Quarter 2002 over 4th Quarter 2001)
After a series of declines in 2001, the volume of merchandise exports showed an increasing trend starting from the first quarter all the way to the fourth quarter of 2002. The annual rates of increase for the four quarters were placed respectively at 14.2, 18.1, 38.7 and 3.6. Positive growths were noted in seven commodity groups during the quarter in review. Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related Materials posted the biggest increment at 39.1 percent or with 99.4 index points, up from 71.5 index points
Increases in the index of two groups under Electronics Components contributed to the positive growth of 2.7 percent in the overall export volume index of electronics components.
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Year-on-Year (4th Quarter 2002 over 4th Quarter 2001
Starting with the second quarter of 2002, overall volume index for merchandise imports continued to exhibit positive growth culminating with the 11.3 percent climb posted during the quarter in review. For this quarter, the total quantity index rose to 138.0 from 124.0.
For Electronics Components, volume index grew by 11.7 percent to 273.3 index points from 244.7.
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III. PRICES
Year-on-Year (4th Quarter 2002 over 4th Quarter 2001
The price index for total merchandise exports continued to suffer a negative growth beginning the second quarter of 2001. During the quarter in review, the index went up by 6.2 percent. The upward trend on the overall export price index was due to the increases in four commodity groups with Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related Materials contributing the biggest increase at 40.5 percent. However, decreases were noted in five groups also with Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles having the biggest negative growth of 5.1 percent.
The price index for Electronics Components registered at 140.3 index points or representing 11.1 percent gain over the same quarter of the previous year.
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Year-on-Year (4th Quarter 2002 over 4th Quarter 2001)
After a continued slowdown in 2001, the price index for total merchandise imports increase by 11.6 percent during the fourth quarter of 2002. The price increase was observed in two groups, namely: Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related Materials and Transactions NEC in the PSCC at 22.2 and 48.5 percent respectively.
Similarly, the price index for imports of Electronics Components went up by 34.8 percent.
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IV. TECHNICAL NOTES
A. Objectives and Uses of Merchandise Trade Indexes
Merchandise Trade Indexes, namely: value index, quantity index and price index for merchandise exports and imports, are generated by the National Statistics Office. These indexes provide a general measure of the changes in value, volume and prices of exported/imported commodity or group of commodities in a given period of time. Thus, these mainly measure the composite changes in the value, quantity and price of various merchandise trades over time.
The main objective of using indexes is to break down changes in the values of exports or imports into price changes and volume changes. Thus, indexes help us analyze whether a change in value of exports or imports of a commodity or group of commodities can be explained by changes in prices, volumes or both. Furthermore, indexes can be used to (1) measure price behavior in international markets, and (2) serve as basis for calculating volume of merchandise trade which is what is measured in Gross Domestic Product.
B. Source Data and Calculations for Merchandise Trade Indexes
The index calculations are based on the customs declarations, i.e., export and import documents, collected by the National Statistics Office from the Bureau of Customs. For purposes of calculating indexes, the information on the F.O.B. value (in US Dollars) and the quantity exported and imported are used. Furthermore, the base year used is 1995 so that the base data used are the values and quantities of exports and imports of specific commodities in 1995. The value index of a commodity is computed as the quotient of current and base year value while the price index of the same is calculated as the ratio of current price over base price. In addition, the relative importance of commodities (i.e., weights) in the total export/import is taken into account in the computation of price index. Finally, the quantity index is derived as the ratio between the computed value indexes over the computed price index.
The over-all merchandise trade indexes are generated using ten commodity sections in the Philippine Standard Commodity Classification (PSCC). The ten sections are: Food and Live Animals; Beverages and Tobacco; Crude Materials, Inedible, Except Fuels; Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related Materials; Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and Waxes; Chemicals and Related Products; Manufactured Goods Classified Chiefly by Materials; Machinery and Transport Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles and Commodities and Transactions NEC in the PSCC. The most detailed commodity specification contains approximately 8,314 commodity sub-items and they are defined as aggregate of the commodity classification by which the indexes are based on.
Detailed discussion on the methodology can be found in special releases on Foreign Trade posted on the NSO website,
http://www.census.gov.ph/data/sectordata/dataftsndxndx.html.
Source: National Statistics Office
Manila, Philippines
Page Last Updated: January 30, 2004