Date Released: January 23, 2007
FOREIGN TRADE INDICES
FIRST QUARTER 2005
(1995=100)
SUMMARY
Growth Rate in Merchandise Foreign Trade Indices:
1st Quarter 2005 and 4th Quarter 2004
| Index | Year-on-Year | Quarter-on-Quarter | ||
| 1st Qtr 2005 | 4th Qtr 2004 | 1st Qtr 2005 | 4th Qtr 2004 | |
| VALUE INDEX | ||||
| Exports | 3.5 | 11.6 | (11.0) | 5.3 |
| Imports | (6.5) | 15.0 | (8.3) | (3.0) |
| PRICE INDEX | ||||
| Exports | 8.7 | 5.9 | (0.8) | 6.8 |
| Imports | 17.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 3.9 |
| QUANTITY INDEX | ||||
| Exports | (4.9) | 5.4 | (10.3) | (1.5) |
| Imports | (20.1) | 11.6 | (9.7) | (6.7) |
Value index for imports posted negative growth after a series of positive rates since fourth quarter 2003. Exports continued to register positive annual rates during the first quarter of the current year.
Price index for both imports and exports showed a positive year-on-year during the first quarter of 2005.
Volume index for both imports and exports declined during the first quarter of 2005 after consecutive increases since the first quarter of 2004.
I. VALUE INDEX
A. Exports
- Year-on-Year (1st Quarter 2005 over 1st Quarter 2004)
Merchandise exports reflected an aggregate value index of 218.6, representing a 3.5 percent increment from 211.3 index points during the same quarter of 2004. Composite index for Manufactured Goods had the biggest increase as it grew by 39.2 percent to 143.3 index points from 102.9 index points.
Value index for Electronic Products at 374.2 moved up by 2.2 percent from 366.0.
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B. Imports
Year-on-Year (1st Quarter 2005 over 1st Quarter 2004)
The value index for merchandise imports, posted a negative year-on-year growth at 6.5 percent. The declined was mainly attributed to Commodities and Transactions NEC in the PSCC group, which displayed a 25.0 percent decrease from 231.1 index points to 173.4 index points in 2005.
Value index for Electronic Products dropped by 19.5 percent to 266.2 from 330.6 index points.
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II. PRICE INDEX
A. Exports
Year-on-Year (1st Quarter 2005 over 1st Quarter 2004)
The price index for total merchandise exports continued to accelerate. It grew by 8.7 percent to 125.0 index points from 115.0 index points during the first quarter of the previous year. The upward trend in the overall export price index was due to the increases in seven commodity groups with Commodities and Transactions NEC in the PSCC contributing the biggest rise at 23.9 percent. However, decreases were observed in two groups with Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related Materials having the biggest negative rate of 26.0 percent.
The price index for Electronic Products at 194.3 index points represented a 6.4 percent increment over the same quarter of the previous year.
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Year-on-Year (1st Quarter 2005 over 1st Quarter 2004)
The price index for merchandise imports posted a double-digit positive growth of 17.2 percent to 109.0 index points from 93.0 index points during the quarter of the previous year. Increases were observed in seven major groups with Commodities and Transactions NEC in the PSCC and Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related Materials having the largest positive growth at 43.0 percent and 33.5 percent respectively.
Similarly, the price index for imports of Electronic Products went up by 24.9 percent.
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III. VOLUME INDEX
Year-on-Year (1st Quarter 2005 over 1st Quarter 2004)
After a series of increments since fourth quarter 2003, the volume of merchandise exports register a negative annual growth during the current quarter. The index fell by 4.9 percent to 175.0 index points from 184.0 index points.
Declines in the index of five groups under Electronic Products contributed to the negative growth of 3.9 percent. Electronic Data Processing reflected the biggest drop at 32.1 percent.
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Year-on-Year (1st Quarter 2005 over 1st Quarter 2004)
After a continued positive annual growth since first quarter last year, the volume index for merchandise imports recorded a double-digit negative rate at 20.1 percent. Declines were recorded in seven groups with Commodities and Transactions NEC in the PSCC posting the highest decrease at 47.3 percent. On the contrary, positive rates were noted in three groups, with the biggest increase observed in Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and Waxes at 104.1 percent.
Meanwhile, the volume index for Electronic Products went down by 3.9 percent to 192.6 index points from 200.4 index points.
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IV. TECHNICAL NOTES
A. Objectives and Uses of Merchandise Trade Indexes
The National Statistics Office generates Merchandise Trade Indexes, namely value index, quantity index and price index for merchandise exports and imports. These indexes provide a general measure of the changes in value, volume and prices of exported/imported commodity or group of commodities in a given period of time. Thus, these mainly measure the composite changes in the value, quantity and price of various merchandise trades over time.
The main objective of using indexes is to break down changes in the values of exports or imports into price changes and volume changes. Thus, indexes help us analyze whether a change in value of exports or imports of a commodity or group of commodities can be explained by changes in prices, volumes or both. Furthermore, indexes can be used to (1) measure price behavior in international markets, and (2) serve as basis for calculating volume of merchandise trade, which is what is measured in Gross Domestic Product.
B. Source Data and Calculations for Merchandise Trade Indexes
The index calculations are based on the customs declarations, i.e., export and import documents, collected by the National Statistics Office from the Bureau of Customs. For purposes of calculating indexes, the information on the F.O.B. value (in US Dollars) and the quantity exported and imported are used. Furthermore, the base year used is 1995 so that the base data used are the values and quantities of exports and imports of specific commodities in 1995. The value index of a commodity is computed as the quotient of current and base year value, similarly the price index of the same is calculated as the ratio of current price over base price. In addition, the relative importance of commodities (i.e., weights) in the total export/import is taken into account in the computation of price index. Finally, the quantity index is derived as the ratio between the computed value indexes over the computed price index.
The over-all merchandise trade indexes are generated using ten commodity sections in the Philippine Standard Commodity Classification (PSCC) of 1993. The ten sections are: Food and Live Animals; Beverages and Tobacco; Crude Materials, Inedible, Except Fuels; Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related Materials; Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and Waxes; Chemicals and Related Products; Manufactured Goods Classified Chiefly by Materials; Machinery and Transport Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles and Commodities and Transactions NEC in the PSCC.
The most detailed commodity specification contains approximately 8,314 commodity sub-items and they are defined as aggregate of the commodity classification by which the indexes are based on.
Detailed discussion on the methodology can be found in special releases on Foreign Trade posted on the NSO website, http://www.census.gov.ph/data/sectordata/datafts.html.
(Sgd.) CARMELITA N. ERICTA
Administrator
Source: National Statistics Office
Manila, Philippines
Page last updated: January 23, 2007