Date Released: August 14, 2008
FOREIGN TRADE INDICES
FOURTH QUARTER 2006
(1995=100)
SUMMARY
Growth Rate in Merchandise Foreign Trade Indices:
3rd Quarter and 2nd Quarters 2006
| Index | Year-on-Year | Quarter-on-Quarter | ||
| 4th Qtr 2006 | 3rd Qtr 2006 | 4th Qtr 2006 | 3rd Qtr 2006 | |
| VALUE INDEX | ||||
| Exports | 7.5 | 16.6 | -4.3 | 5.3 |
| Imports | 8.4 | 10.0 | -2.0 | 1.9 |
| PRICE INDEX | ||||
| Exports | -16.9 | -8.7 | -1.7 | -7.3 |
| Imports | 5.0 | 4.0 | -4.6 | 5.6 |
| QUANTITY INDEX | ||||
| Exports | 29.4 | 27.7 | -2.8 | 13.7 |
| Imports | 3.2 | 6.1 | 2.5 | -3.7 |
Value index for both exports and imports sustained their positive year-on-year growth for the fourth quarter of 2006 although at a slower pace.
Price index for imports had consistently posted a year-on-year positive growth since the fourth quarter of 2005 while price index for exports continued to slow down recording a negative growth of 16.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006.
Volume index for both exports and imports continued to record positive growths after a series of negative growths in 2005.
I. VALUE INDEX
A. Exports
- Year-on-Year (4th Quarter 2006 over 4th Quarter 2005)
Total merchandise exports in the fourth quarter of 2006 registered an aggregate value index of 273.5, representing a 7.5 percent increase from 254.3 index points during the same quarter in 2005. Composite index for Manufactured Goods Classified Chiefly by Materials had the biggest increment of 166.9 percent to 338.6 index points from 126.9 index points during the fourth quarter of 2005. This may be due to the increase in the value indices of the cork and wood manufactures (excluding furniture); iron and steel; and non-ferrous metals. Meanwhile, value index for Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related Materials posted the highest decline of 35.9 percent to 248.0 index points from 386.6 index points during the fourth quarter of 2005. This may be due to the decline in the value index of Petroleum, Petroleum Products and Related Materials. (Table A.2)
Value index for Electronic Products in the fourth quarter of 2006 went down by 0.3 percent to 440.2 index points from 441.4 index points during the same quarter of 2005. More than half (55.6 percent) of the major groups of electronic products revealed a year-on-year positive growth ranging from a low of 8.1 percent to a high of 246.3 percent. (Table A.3)
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B. Imports
Year-on-Year (4th Quarter 2006 over 4th Quarter 2005)
Value index for total merchandise imports in the fourth quarter of 2006 posted a growth of 8.4 percent to 201.6 index points from 186.1 index points during the same quarter of 2005. The growth in the current quarter could be attributed to the increase of all the commodity sections with Minerals Fuels, Lubricants and Related Materials leading, which rose by 30.1 percent to 301.4 index points from 231.7 index points during the fourth quarter of 2005. (Tables B.1 and B.2)
Value index for imports of Electronic Products in the fourth quarter of 2006 went up by 2.6 percent to 349.1 index points from 340.4 index points during the same quarter of 2005. (Table B.3)
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II. PRICE INDEX
A. Exports
Year-on-Year (4th Quarter 2006 over 4th Quarter 2005)
Price index for total merchandise exports in the fourth quarter of 2006 decreased by 16.9 percent to 113.0 index points from 136.0 index points during the fourth quarter of 2005. This downward movement may be due to the significant decline in the price index of Machinery and Transport Equipment by 33.6 percent to 99.0 index points from 149.0 index points during the same quarter of 2005. (Table A.2)
The price index for Electronic Products in the fourth quarter of 2006 likewise went down by 24.3 percent to 157.6 index points from 208.3 index points during the same quarter of 2005. This may be due to the declines recorded by all major groups of electronic products except for consumer electronics; control and instrumentation; and medical and industrial instrumentation. (Table A.3)
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Year-on-Year (4th Quarter 2006 over 4th Quarter 2005)
Price index for total merchandise imports in the fourth quarter of 2006 grew by 5.0 percent to 125.0 index points from 119.0 index points during the fourth quarter of 2005. Increments were observed in the six commodity sections with Minerals Fuels, Lubricants and Related Materials posting the highest positive growth at 32.3 percent. (Table B.2)
Similarly, the price index for imports of Electronic Products in the fourth quarter of 2006 increased by 6.7 percent to 180.2 index points from 168.9 index points during the fourth quarter of 2005. (Table B.3)
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III. VOLUME INDEX
Year-on-Year (4th Quarter 2006 over 4th Quarter 2005)
The volume index for total merchandise exports in the fourth quarter of 2006 sustained its double-digit year-on-year growth at 29.4 percent since the second quarter of 2006 to 242.0 index points from 187.0 index points during the same quarter of 2005. Positive growth rates were noted in seven commodity sections with Manufactured of Goods Classified Chiefly by Materials posting the highest increase of 115.9 percent. (Table A.2)
Similarly, volume index of Electronic Products in the fourth quarter of 2006 inched-up by 31.8 percent to 279.3 index points from 211.9 index points during the fourth quarter of 2005. This may be due to the significant growth of all the major groups of electronic products except for consumer electronics and medical/industrial instrumentation. (Table A.3)
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Year-on-Year (4th Quarter 2006 over 4th Quarter 2005)
Volume index for total merchandise imports recorded a modest growth of 3.2 percent to 161.0 index points from 156.0 index points during the fourth quarter of 2006. The growth was due to the increase of the seven commodity sections with Animals and Vegetables Oils, Fats and Waxes; and Commodities and Transactions N.E.C. posting the highest at 29.1 percent and 11.2 percent, respectively. (Tables B.1 and B.2)
On the contrary, year-on-year decline of 3.9 percent was noted in the volume index for Electronic Products in the fourth quarter of 2006 to 193.8 index points from 201.5 index points recorded in the fourth quarter of 2005.
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IV. TECHNICAL NOTES
A. Objectives and Uses of Merchandise Trade Indexes
The National Statistics Office generates Merchandise Trade Indices for exports and imports, namely value index, volume index and price index. These indices provide a general measure of the changes in value, volume and prices of exported/imported commodity or group of commodities in a given period of time. Thus, these indices mainly measure the composite changes in the value, quantity and price of various merchandise trade over time.
The main objective of the indices is to break down changes in the values of exports or imports into price changes and volume changes. Thus, indices help us analyze whether a change in value of exports or imports of a commodity or group of commodities can be explained by changes in prices, volumes or both. Furthermore, indices can be used to (1) measure price behavior in international markets, and (2) serve as basis for calculating volume of merchandise trade, which is what is measured in Gross Domestic Product.
B. Source Data and Calculations for Merchandise Trade Indexes
The index calculations are based on the customs declarations, i.e., export and import documents, collected by the National Statistics Office from the Bureau of Customs. For purposes of calculating indices, the information on the F.O.B. value (in US Dollars) and the quantity exported and imported are used. The base year is 1995, which means that the values and quantities of exports and imports of specific commodities in 1995 are used as base data.
The value index of a commodity is computed as the quotient of current and base year value. Similarly, the price index of the same is calculated as the ratio of current price over base price. In addition, the relative importance of the commodities in the total export/import is taken into account in the computation of price index through weighting. Finally, the quantity index is derived as the ratio between the computed value indices over the computed price indices.
The ten commodity sections in the 1993 Philippine Standard Commodity Classification (PSCC) are used to generate the over-all merchandise trade indices. The ten sections are Food and Live Animals; Beverages and Tobacco; Crude Materials, Inedible, Except Fuels; Mineral Fuels, Lubricants and Related Materials; Animal and Vegetable Oils, Fats and Waxes; Chemicals and Related Products; Manufactured Goods Classified Chiefly by Materials; Machinery and Transport Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles and Commodities and Transactions N.E.C.
The most detailed commodity specification contains approximately 8,314 commodity sub-items and they are defined as aggregate of the commodity classification by which the indices are based on.
Detailed discussion on the methodology can be found in the special release on Foreign Trade posted on the NSO website, http://www.census.gov.ph/data/sectordata/datafts.html.
(Sgd.) CARMELITA N. ERICTA
Administrator
Source: National Statistics Office
Manila, Philippines
Page last updated: August 14, 2008